In recent years, the production capacity and output of organic silicon monomers in my country have continued to grow. By the end of 2021, the production capacity and production of methyl siloxane in China will exceed 60% of the global total, and the consumption will exceed 50% of the global total, and it is still in a stage of rapid development. It is estimated that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the production capacity of organic silicon monomers in China will exceed 6 million tons per year, accounting for more than 70% of the global production capacity of organic silicon methyl monomers. However, from the analysis of the import and export status of siloxanes in the primary form in China, high-end silicone products still rely on imports, and the phenomenon of big but not strong still exists.

Capacity continues to rise

During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the production capacity, output and load rate of organic silicon monomers in China continued to increase.

   According to statistics, from 2012 to 2021, the compound annual growth rate of China's organic silicon monomer production capacity is 6.3%, and the compound growth rate in the past five years is 8%. By the end of 2021, China's organic silicon monomer production capacity reached 3.81 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 15.28%, accounting for about 61.6% of the global organic silicon monomer production capacity.

   From 2012 to 2021, the compound annual growth rate of China's organic silicon monomer production was 10.26%, and the compound growth rate in the past five years was 8.9%. By the end of 2021, China's silicone siloxane production reached 1.59 million tons, an increase of 18.83% year-on-year. In addition, the load rate of organic silicon monomer units in China continues to rise, and the load rate in 2021 will reach nearly 90%.

   Based on the known planned expansion and new projects, it is expected that the growth trend of China's organic silicon monomer production capacity will continue during the "14th Five-Year Plan".

  According to statistics, the three companies that have successfully commissioned in the first quarter of 2022 have added 700,000 tons/year of organic silicon monomer production capacity. There are 13 organosilicon methyl monomer enterprises in China (including foreign-funded enterprises), of which 6 are undergoing expansion and technological transformation, involving a production capacity of nearly 1.4 million tons per year. According to public information reports, there are at least 15 companies in China planning to expand and build new organosilicon methyl monomer units, of which the planned expansion capacity is nearly 3 million tons per year. It is estimated that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the production capacity of organic silicon methyl monomers in China will exceed 6 million tons per year, accounting for more than 70% of the global production capacity of organic silicon methyl monomers.

   The rapid expansion of organic silicon monomers is conducive to balancing the market. In recent years, the upstream market of organic silicon has been in short supply, and the price fluctuates greatly, which has a great impact on the downstream industry. With the growth of production capacity, it can not only meet the urgent needs of various industries for silicone products, but also promote the silicone industry to become bigger and stronger.

   However, it is worth noting that the enthusiasm for investment in organic silicon monomers is high, and new and renovation projects continue to increase rapidly. There is a risk of staged overcapacity, and supply may exceed demand. This should arouse the attention of production enterprises, control risks, and at the same time strengthen innovative research and the development of high-performance product technology downstream of silicone.

  Export scale growth

  my country's primary siloxane import and export products mainly include dimethyl cyclosiloxane mixture (DMC), silicone oil, raw rubber, liquid silicone rubber (LSR), compounded silicone rubber, sealant, 107 glue, etc. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, from 2012 to 2021, the import volume of siloxane in the primary form in China did not fluctuate little, and was basically flat, while the export volume continued to rise.

   It is understood that in 2014, my country's primary form of siloxane achieved net export for the first time, and then the net export volume of my country's primary form of siloxane continued to rise. The compound growth rate from 2017 to 2021 is 27.27%; the average net export volume in 2020 and 2021 will increase by more than 90.56% compared with 2019, and 2021 will increase by 165.93% compared with 2020.

From 2012 to 2021, the compound annual growth rate of my country's primary form of siloxane exports was 16.37%, and the compound growth rate in the past five years was 15.37%. An increase of 38.22% over 2019.

  From 2012 to 2021, my country's primary form of siloxane exports continued to rise, with a compound growth rate of 14.91%, and a compound growth rate of 25.76% in the past five years. Among them, the export value in 2021 will reach 1.585 billion US dollars, an increase of 119.3% over the previous year. The average export value in 2020 and 2021 will increase by more than 52.92% compared with 2019.

   Affected by factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the high cost of overseas silicones, in recent years, the production capacity of foreign silicone monomers may be withdrawn one after another. It is expected that the export volume of my country's silicone products will continue to grow.

   Lack of high-end products

  Although the production capacity of siloxane in primary form has increased significantly in recent years, high-end products still rely on imports.

   In the past 10 years, the change trend of China's primary form of siloxane import value is consistent with the import volume. From 2012 to 2021, the import amount of siloxane in the primary form in my country increased slightly, with a compound growth rate of 2.4%. Among them, the import value in 2021 is 928 million US dollars, an increase of 13.84% over the previous year.

  From the analysis of the average unit price of imports, from 2012 to 2021, the average import price of siloxanes in the primary form in my country increased slightly, with a compound growth rate of 2.4%. Among them, the average import price of primary siloxane in my country rose slightly from 2012 to 2018. In 2018, the average import price rose to US$6,687/ton, and then gradually decreased to US$5,389/ton in 2020, the lowest value in the past 10 years. .

To sum up, with the rapid expansion of my country's siloxane production capacity and the upgrading of enterprise technology, my country's low- and mid-end siloxane products have gradually achieved import substitution, but high-end products, especially high-value-added products of silicone terminals, still need to rely on imports. It is necessary to pay attention to R&D investment and new product development, so as to bring greater profit margins to the enterprise.