The short-term industry situation and outlook of the silicone market
Source:转+改 Author:QL-B Release time:2021-07-08 10:27 Reading times:3272

Recent trend

According to the current situation, the mainstream domestic silicone DMC market transactions are around 30,300-31,000 yuan/ton; D4 domestic brands are 31,000-32,000 yuan/ton; raw rubber mainstream talks are near 32,500-33,000 yuan/ton; 107 glue mainstream talks are 31,000-31,500 yuan/tonNear the ton; the mainstream negotiation of the conventional hardness rubber compound market is near 27000-28000 yuan/ton; the mainstream negotiation of the 201 methyl silicone oil (conventional viscosity) domestic brand is near 32000-38000 yuan/ton.

The contradiction between supply and demand of bulk commodities is one of the important factors that caused the increase in bulk commodity prices in the first half of the year.With the reasonable adjustment of policies, the current trend of bulk commodity prices has eased compared with the previous period, and the fundamentals of commodity supply are gradually improving. However, changes in overseas liquidity and other factors still cause certain uncertainty, and the trend of different commodities may tend toDifferentiation.

Market analysis

Domestic organic silicon market prices have remained relatively stable. However, the amount of corporate orders is gradually coming to an end, and the number of high-priced orders for new orders has declined. Corporate inventory is currently gradually accumulating. The mainstream domestic manufacturers are still operating steadily.At present, domestic companies mainly focus on normal driving in addition to periodic interest maintenance. The Shihe subproject is still in shutdown. The overall domestic supply is normal, and overseas exports continue to maintain a relatively high level.

There are 14 start-up enterprises nationwide, 5 in East China; 2 in Central China; 3 in Northwest China; 3 in Shandong; 1 in North China.From the perspective of regional operating rate: the current overall domestic operating rate is about 80% (starting covers the Hesheng Shihe subproject in Xinjiang), of which: the operating rate in East China is 85%; the operating rate in Shandong is about 85%; the operating rate in Central China is 85%; The operating rate of Northwest China is about 60%.Generally speaking, the production market is worry-free, and the supply-demand relationship is developing steadily.

Dimethicone: Taking Zhangjiagang Dow as an example, the start-up load of the device is gradually normal, and some traders operate flexibly.At present, the price of silicone oil is strong, and some seals are not reported. The current mainstream reference quotation in the market is 32,000-36,000 yuan/ton. Actual transactions still exist due to different high-priced orders from customers' fixed procurement channels.The raw material market continues to rise, and the price of silicone oil is rising.

Market Outlook

At present, the production capacity of Shihezi, a leading domestic enterprise, has been shut down for maintenance, and it is expected to gradually recover after mid-July.Domestic mainstream DMC manufacturers' quotations are still at a high level, at about 31,000 yuan/ton. With the strong support of DMC costs, the prices of intermediates and downstream products are rising. Due to the lack of raw material inventory of manufacturers in the early stage, the supply of downstream products is still tight.After July, high-priced orders have been maintained for a long time, and the downstream purchasing mentality has gradually turned negative. It is not ruled out that the market will give priority to shipments.It is expected that the domestic organic silicon market prices will be slightly profitable in the near future.

In the long run, silicone has a wide range of application scenarios, with more than 7,000 types of terminal segmentation products.It is expected that in the next 5 years, the downstream market of organic silicon will usher in a major outbreak in many fields. By 2025, the relevant market will rise from the current 50 billion yuan to 94.5 billion yuan, and the prospects are very promising.

my country has become a major producer and consumer of organic silicon, and the advantages of domestic organic silicon products have become more prominent.According to data from the National Silicon Industry Green Development Strategic Alliance, my country has changed from a net importer of organic silicon to a net exporter since 2014. In 2020, the cumulative export of organic silicon was 243,000 tons, an increase of 8.5% over the previous year; the import was 152,000 tons. An increase of 2.9% over the previous year.

Industry organizations predict that organic silicon market prices are expected to be high in the second half of 2021, and that domestic new production capacity will gradually invest another 400,000 tons of production capacity in the second half of the year, but the actual output increase is expected to be around 2022.

On the whole, the increase in output in 2021 is mainly due to the new 400,000 tons of production capacity of Hesheng Silicon Industry. This capacity has been released in the first half of this year, but the supply situation is still relatively tight.

Securities institutions believe that due to the vacuum period of new production capacity and the low inventory of the whole industry, the price of organic silicon products is expected to continue to rise in the future.The sharp rebound in organic silicon prices has increased the performance of related companies. As prices continue to rise, industry leaders are expected to benefit from the focus.

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